The economic impact of a sudden outbreak of pneumonia caused by a new coronavirus has been a major concern. Since January 31, when the world health organization (WHO) declared the new coronavirus outbreak a "public health emergency of international concern" (PHEIC), concerns about the adverse impact on the Chinese economy have been growing. What is the impact of the outbreak on China's economy? Listen to the analysis of leading experts.
"As early as 2003, during the SARS prevention and control war, tencent, jd.com, alibaba and many other enterprises were forced to self-evolve in order to 'survive', and finally broke through the predicament to become a butterfly." Wang chenwei said the outbreak has had a negative impact on some industries at the same time. "As long as these companies do not fail in the outbreak, then some of the 'pent-up' economic activity will be concentrated after the outbreak. There will also be a strong economic rebound after the outbreak."
Experts also believe that through the outbreak prevention and control war, the government's governance capacity will be greatly improved, which will help improve the business environment in the medium and long term. "Since the outbreak, governments at all levels have taken the most comprehensive and rigorous prevention and control measures in a highly responsible attitude toward people's health. "The extremely complicated process, from epidemic prevention to patient treatment to publicity and education, is just a big test and exercise for the government departments, and the government's governance capacity will be improved." Yang liqiang said.
"Effectively stopping the spread of the disease is the most effective way to reduce the economic impact of the outbreak." Sheng chaoxun, deputy director of the industry institute of the Chinese academy of macroeconomic research, said that the most important thing is to control the epidemic, increase international notification and information sharing, strengthen international cooperation on viruses, vaccines and reagents, launch vaccines as soon as possible, and control the epidemic earlier, so that everyone can focus on returning to the main economic battlefield.
Yang liqiang suggested that during the outbreak, strong measures should be taken to effectively reduce the degree of impact on logistics, to ensure the effective operation of enterprise supply chains while ensuring people's living needs. At the same time, measures can be taken to allow and support enterprises with conditions to carry out virtual commerce in different places, such as virtual meetings and home office, so as to improve the level of e-government facilitation.
"At present, there is an urgent need to send positive policy signals to guide public expectations, strengthen confidence in winning the fight against the outbreak and ensure steady economic development." Yang liqiang said.
Wang chenwei believes that it is necessary to strengthen the special period of economic monitoring and early warning work. The main economic indicators and the development of enterprises during the epidemic period were timely tracked and analyzed. We will promptly identify new changes and situations brought about by the epidemic to the economy, carefully study countermeasures in view of special situations and emergencies, and effectively respond to them.
Experts said that the economic measures taken in response to the outbreak should not only be based on solving the current pressing practical problems, but also focus on long-term high-quality economic development, and resolutely avoid flooding economic expansion measures, and resolutely avoid going down the old road of extensive investment-led.
"For some projects that will not be affected by the epidemic, the preliminary work should be done well. "The outbreak may be followed by a wave of economic rebound, and relevant investment and construction projects affected by the outbreak will be accelerated. We need to plan in advance." Wang chenwei said that for the urban areas where the population flows into the region, we can plan for appropriate advanced infrastructure construction, increase investment in roads, education, health care and other industries, so as to stimulate demand, stabilize employment, improve infrastructure and increase the potential growth rate of the economy.
Sheng chaoxun suggested, should speed up the new pillar industry cultivation and "new infrastructure" construction. For example, we will vigorously develop knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive industries such as office automation, artificial intelligence, life and health, new energy and new materials to meet the development needs of industries such as 5G, intelligent internet-connected automobiles, quantum communication, e-commerce, online medical treatment and distance education. At the same time, we will accelerate the construction of next-generation information technologies and new types of infrastructure centered on digitalization to support the upgrading and development of industrial and social networking, digitalization and intelligentization.
Wang also believes that after the end of the epidemic, it is necessary to further reform the holiday system, it should be appropriate to increase the number of holidays in the middle of the year, such as the summer holiday system in July and August, which will play a positive role in improving people's living standards and promoting consumption.
"In the medium and long term, the growth potential of the Chinese economy has not yet been fully unleashed, there is still more room for institutional innovation, and there is still more room for manoeuvre in China's macroeconomic policies. "China's economic resilience and resilience will surely be further enhanced after such tests as the outbreak of the epidemic." Yang liqiang said.
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